PAST CLIMATE MAPS
Most of you don't need the weatherman to tell you, but it's been dry. The dry weather did allow for good days to complete field work, as most fields have now been harvested. Overall, as a state, Iowa is reporting 94 percent short (to very short) subsoil moisture levels. This is the driest Iowa's subsoil has been at the close of the third week in November since 1999. As a long-range forecaster I often look for a change in season to usher in a new weather regime or pattern. Heading into December, I don't see that occurring right now. I'm a little conflicted in the prospects for precipitation this month, most of which falls as snow. December is never a big precipitation month but it is nice to have snow to provide cover. Right now I'm leaning towards the dryness to continuing into December over the southern portions of the Midwest with near to above normal totals over Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Temperatures have been on a roller coaster ride with periods of above and below average with no real consistency. In all, temperatures for November finished within one degree of normal. Expect this trend to continue, periods of above and below, with temperatures favored to finish colder than normal overall for the month.
Clouds with a chance of passing showers are favored to open the month on Saturday, Dec. 1. Temperatures should be mild.
Sunny skies are expected on Sunday, Dec. 2.
Clouds and showers are favored on Monday and Tuesday, Dec. 3-4. Look for rain changing to snow as temperatures go from warm to cold.
Fair skies and seasonable temperatures are expected from Wednesday to Saturday, Dec. 5-8.
Prospects are fair to good for a winter weather event from Sunday to Tuesday, Dec. 9-11. A rain changing to snow event is possible with temperatures turning colder.
Colder temperatures with a few clouds are favored from Wednesday to Friday, Dec. 12-14.
Look for a day of clouds and precipitation, then sun, back to clouds and precipitation, then sun from Saturday to Tuesday, Dec. 15-18.
Precipitation prospects will be on the increase from Wednesday to Monday, Dec. 19-24. I think this will be our best opportunity for significant snowfall as a series of winter weather systems are expected to move through. Locally heavy snow totals are possible.
Sunny and cold temperatures are favored on Christmas day, Tuesday, Dec. 25.
Mostly cloudy skies are favored from Wednesday to Monday, Dec. 26-31. Expect a mix of weather to accompany the clouds ranging from rain, freezing rain and snow. This is very typical at this time of year.
Have great New Years Eve!